{"id":8409,"date":"2023-11-02T01:41:11","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T01:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zoominfinancial.com\/business\/the-breakdown-of-chinas-social-contract\/"},"modified":"2023-11-02T01:41:11","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T01:41:11","slug":"the-breakdown-of-chinas-social-contract","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zoominfinancial.com\/?p=8409","title":{"rendered":"The breakdown of China\u2019s social contract"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

In Yuxinzhuang village, a warren of narrow streets on Beijing\u2019s outskirts known for its vibrant community of migrant workers, Zhou wolfs down noodles in a tiny Muslim restaurant.<\/p>\n

The 30-year-old father of one has a job setting up shell companies with fake cash flow for struggling small business owners, who then use them to raise new loans to pay off their previous creditors.<\/p>\n

But even this dubious line of business, which should thrive in a downturn, is suffering from China\u2019s economic slowdown. Last month, Zhou\u2019s income fell to a fraction of last year\u2019s levels. Zhou, who did not want to give his full name, now plans to return to his family farm in the poorer central province of Henan and sell organic eggs.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know who to blame for the economic downturn but all I know is that this year the economy is really bad,\u201d he says. \u201cLay-offs everywhere.\u201d<\/p>\n

As China\u2019s economic growth slows, stories such as Zhou\u2019s abound. The country\u2019s 296mn migrant workers are facing slowing wage growth, its new university graduates are struggling to find jobs, the urban middle class has lost money in a policy-induced property meltdown and the rich are reeling from Beijing\u2019s crackdowns on the internet, finance and health sectors.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Column<\/picture><\/figure>\n

National security regulations are worrying foreign companies, many of which have stopped investing. Only those working in some areas of the government or sectors deemed strategic, such as semiconductors, are being spared.<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping, China\u2019s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong who embarked on an unprecedented third term in March, claims everything is going to plan. The country is marching towards \u201cnational rejuvenation\u201d and \u201chigh-quality development\u201d as the party\u2019s \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d policy reduces inequality.<\/p>\n

But beneath the triumphant rhetoric, many observers wonder whether policymaking is adrift. The Communist party used to allow its people abundant economic opportunity in exchange for heavy restrictions on their political freedom. Now the so-called social contract is no longer clear. In the place of growth and opportunity are vague promises of security and \u201ca better life\u201d. But with about 600mn people struggling to get by on less than $140 a month, will that be enough?\u00a0A once optimistic society now worries about the future. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe old contract was a pretty simple one which is: \u2018We\u2019ll stay out of politics, we won\u2019t express sensitive opinions, provided we can expect to be prosperous in the future\u2019,\u201d says George Magnus, author of Red Flags: Why Xi\u2019s China is in Jeopardy<\/em>, and a research associate at the University of Oxford\u2019s China Centre.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That \u201chas been undermined and not just by the fact that China\u2019s old development model is not really working anymore but also by the government\u2019s own culpability for not addressing the issues,\u201d he says. \u201cFundamentally, it\u2019s an issue of trust.\u201d<\/p>\n

The promise of common prosperity<\/h2>\n

After securing his second term as party secretary at the 19th party congress in 2017, Xi signalled a \u201cnew deal\u201d for China, according to a paper at the time by Evan Feigenbaum, of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chinese Marxists think in terms of contradictions \u2014 the dialectical opposition of different forces or influences, Feigenbaum wrote. During the reform and opening up period that followed the end of the Mao era, the party concentrated on economic growth, or resolving the \u201ccontradiction\u201d between the people\u2019s \u201cever-growing material\u201d needs and the country\u2019s \u201cbackward social production\u201d, according to an account of Xi\u2019s comments at the congress in state media. <\/p>\n

But Xi declared China was facing a new challenge. After decades of rapid growth, he said the \u201cprinciple contradiction\u201d was \u201cbetween unbalanced and inadequate development and the people\u2019s ever-growing needs for a better life\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"A<\/picture>
A demolished housing settlement in Daxing district, Beijing. Some migrants suspect that buildings are being torn down as part of efforts to drive them out of the city <\/span> \u00a9 Kevin Frayer\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

These \u201cneeds\u201d, he said, included \u201cdemands for democracy, rule of law, fairness and justice, security, and a better environment\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Security was the keyword, analysts say. When Xi became party leader in 2012, the organisation was concerned that the growing private sector was empowering entrepreneurs and eclipsing the apparatchiks. In 2013, the party circulated an internal memo, Document Number Nine, attacking western constitutional democracy and other ideas, such as universal human rights and ardently pro-market \u201cneoliberalism\u201d.<\/p>\n

In the ensuing years, Xi has rooted out dissent and enforced party discipline through endless anti-corruption campaigns while pursuing a more assertive foreign policy, alienating large trading partners such as the US.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe so-called anti-corruption campaign is just\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009an instrument [the Communist party] wants to use to purge everyone who is not loyal,\u201d says Xu Chenggang, senior research scholar at Stanford University\u2019s Center on China\u2019s Economy and Institutions.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

The tragedy of Xi\u2019s economic policy is he has identified some problems China needs to fix but has gone about it the wrong way<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This tightening of control is pervasive, from limits on the publication of economic data and investigations of foreign consultancies under data and anti-espionage laws, to the detention of a million Uyghurs in Xinjiang and the sinicisation of religion and culture, analysts say.<\/p>\n

\u201cSecurity is a requisite for development. That\u2019s been a pretty clear part of the social contract under Xi Jinping,\u201d says Drew Thompson, a China expert at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.<\/p>\n

But it was in 2021, as the economy was recovering from the first shock of the onset of Covid-19, that Xi launched one of his most decisive campaigns yet to meet the people\u2019s aspirations for a \u201cbetter life\u201d \u2014 what he called \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Beijing cracked down on the internet empire of billionaire Jack Ma, leading him to largely disappear from public, and the country\u2019s other important internet groups, shutting down overnight the whole industry of online tutoring and restricting online gaming for children.<\/p>\n

In a speech on common prosperity at the party\u2019s central committee for financial and economic affairs in August 2021, Xi expounded on the policy\u2019s deeper aims. Cadres must \u201cresolutely oppose the unlimited sprawl of capital\u201d and \u201cuphold the dominant role of the public sector\u201d, he said, while also somehow mobilising \u201cthe zeal of entrepreneurs\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tellingly, this was not a call for a European-style social welfare state. The party was pursuing its long-term strategic objectives of building China \u201cinto a great modern socialist country\u201d, he said, but it must not \u201cfall into the trap of \u2018welfarism\u2019 that encourages laziness\u201d.<\/p>\n

The result of the top-down attempt to re-engineer society was disastrous for investment sentiment, especially when it coincided with increasing geopolitical tensions with the US, Beijing\u2019s zero-Covid policy and the \u201cthree red lines\u201d \u2014 a scheme to force deleveraging in the over-indebted property sector.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s tech stocks listed in the US have fallen 70 per cent between February 2021 and today. While some of that is due to external factors, domestic policy has not helped.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Line<\/picture><\/figure>\n

In June, the youth unemployment rates hit 21.3 per cent before the government stopped releasing the figures, a likely byproduct of the shrinking of the internet sector that was a big employer of young graduates. Official data for average primary market housing prices shows them drifting lower in September.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe tragedy of Xi Jinping\u2019s economic policy is he has identified some problems China needs to fix but has gone about it the wrong way,\u201d says Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute\u2019s Center for China Analysis.<\/p>\n

A burden on rural communities <\/h2>\n

Back in Yuxinzhuang village, a woman surveys the destruction outside her small grocery shop. The flats across the road are being torn down because they were constructed years ago on former village land without the correct zoning, she says.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some migrant worker residents suspect the real purpose is to drive them out of Beijing. The capital is one of China\u2019s \u201cfirst tier\u201d cities, where most migrant workers do not have the money or qualifications to qualify for hukou<\/em>, the household registration stamp that would give them full access to public services such as health and education.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s had a huge impact on us,\u201d says the woman, who is from eastern Shandong province, of the demolitions. Sales have plunged as people leave the area, she adds.<\/p>\n

For most economists, the structural challenges facing China\u2019s economy have been apparent for more than a decade \u2014 especially its reliance on debt-fuelled investment in infrastructure and property and the relatively low share of domestic consumption in gross domestic product.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Line<\/picture><\/figure>\n

With property no longer a driver, many are wondering what will replace it. An electric vehicle boom is one bright spot. But high-end manufacturing, though favoured by Beijing, will not generate enough jobs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even as total debt \u2014 household, corporate and government \u2014 hit 281.5 per cent of GDP in the second quarter, according to calculations by Bloomberg, productivity advances have slowed and the demographic outlook has worsened, with the population officially declining for the first time last year. The government has set a target for growth in GDP this year of 5 per cent, its lowest in decades. The IMF estimates this could fall below 4 per cent in the years to come.<\/p>\n

Economists point to a list of reforms that could turn the situation around. Bert Hofman, a former Beijing-based country director for China at the World Bank, in a blog post titled \u201cDiminishing Expectations\u201d lists sweeping fiscal, financial, retirement age and pension, state-owned enterprise and hukou<\/em> reforms.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cNone of these reforms are easy, and each one cuts into the interest of some groups in society\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009but the package as a whole should increase the pie for all,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Others say if the government is serious about really implementing \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d, it would have ended hukou<\/em>, which they say has turned rural and migrant workers into \u201csecond-class\u201d citizens. <\/p>\n

While there has been some reform of the system, abolishing it could increase urbanisation, revive property demand and increase people\u2019s average incomes, analysts say. Hofman writes that about 65 per cent of the population lives in urban areas but about 20 percentage points of this are migrant workers. About 25 per cent of the labour force still works in agriculture.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Line<\/picture><\/figure>\n

\u201cIt gives the lie to common prosperity,\u201d John Burns, an honorary professor of politics and public administration at the University of Hong Kong, says of hukou<\/em>. \u201cRural people have paid the price for all this prosperity in the cities.\u201d<\/p>\n

China\u2019s average annual pension per head for urban residents was Rmb50,763 ($6,936) in 2021, about 22 times the rural equivalent, while civil servants received Rmb77,804. The average annual healthcare disbursements for urban residents in 2021 totalled Rmb4,166, about 4.4 times the rural equivalent. <\/p>\n

But today\u2019s economic malaise reaches beyond the rural and urban poor. Upper-middle-class people talk of losing millions of renminbi in property and failed wealth management plans, while the wealthy elites complain about a lack of investment opportunities and increasing government interference.<\/p>\n

One mining company owner in southern Guangdong province says local authorities kept borrowing money from him with no intention of paying it back, giving him cheap land instead. This had little value given the property crisis so he ended up investing his money in a chicken farm out of reach of the officials.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere has been a lot of talk about the government supporting the private sector,\u201d he says. \u201cIn reality we are under pressure to bail out cash-strapped local governments.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018A sense of drift\u2019<\/h2>\n

In the rural eastern province of Anhui, a woman mourning China\u2019s former premier Li Keqiang, who died suddenly on Friday, captures the complexity of people\u2019s feelings about China\u2019s leaders.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s focus on security \u2014 Beijing has constructed one of the world\u2019s most extensive surveillance states \u2014 has meant far less crime in her local area, says the woman. \u201cThanks to the surveillance system, I can now hop on a public bus without worrying about being pickpocketed,\u201d she says, after placing flowers at Li\u2019s ancestral home in Jiuzi village.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Mourners<\/picture>
Mourners outside the childhood home of the late Li Keqiang. Seen as a pro-market reformer, the former premier was once considered a contender for the presidency<\/span> \u00a9 Andrea Verdelli\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But she, like many of the mourners, betrays a yearning for a leadership more sympathetic to her daily struggles. Many saw that in Li, who until March was Xi\u2019s number-two official, saying he spoke out for the poor.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cHe was a great premier,\u201d she says, choking with emotion.<\/p>\n

Unlike Xi and many other senior leaders, Li grew up in a modest neighbourhood, where traditional Anhui beef noodle shops still ply their trade.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Seen as a pro-market reformer who was supported by former premier Hu Jintao, Li was once believed to be a contender for the presidency but the party chose Xi, who took it in a more austere direction. <\/p>\n

\u201cSome senior leaders wanted to build a strong nation at the expense of ordinary people\u2019s wealth and opportunities,\u201d says a second mourner at Li\u2019s former childhood home in the nearby provincial capital of Hefei. \u201cPremier Li wanted to make ordinary people rich first and then create a strong nation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some political scientists argue that the party\u2019s emphasis on social issues and common prosperity rather than growth has been a power play aimed at rolling back the private sector, which grew too powerful under previous presidents, providing 80 per cent of China\u2019s employment.<\/p>\n

Stanford\u2019s Xu says common prosperity created a convenient platform to blame entrepreneurs for the troubles of the poor while undermining their influence. The problem was that it got mixed in with a slowdown brought on by the zero-Covid policy and property woes.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we put all of this together, now the Chinese economy is in deep trouble,\u201d Xu says.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Line<\/picture><\/figure>\n

Most analysts argue the government has temporarily softened its crackdown on the private sector as it tries to stabilise the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Many economists are now looking to the third plenum, an important party meeting that occurs one year after a new leadership takes office and which is expected to be held before the end of this year, for signs of the government\u2019s broader plans for the economy, though few are optimistic on the prospect for deeper reforms.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that there is maybe this sense of drift or lack of confidence in the future, I think, is a corrosive phenomenon that we\u2019re not used to seeing in China and, politically, I should think that the government ought to be worried about it,\u201d says Oxford\u2019s Magnus.<\/p>\n

Few think that growing frustration with the economy will imminently lead to social unrest, however. Thompson points out that it took the \u201cgrossest violations of civil liberties\u201d during China\u2019s extended Covid lockdowns to spark the so-called \u201cwhite paper protests\u201d in November 2022, when people in many cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, held blank sheets of paper symbolising everything they could not say.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But more likely is a loss of China\u2019s former optimism that will be challenging to reignite or, says Xu, a slow slide into passive cynicism. The second Li mourner, in Hefei, who works for a real estate company and soon expects to lose his job, speaks to the uncertainty being felt in communities across China: \u201cWe just don\u2019t know what tomorrow will bring.\u201d<\/p>\n

Data visualisation by <\/em>Keith Fray<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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